How Ripple Effect is helping farming communities prepare for El Niño

Approx. 8 min read time  

By Merci Umutoniwase, Communications Executive and Meshark Sikuku, Farm Systems and Sustainability Coordinator 

El Niño is expected to strengthen in the coming months, bringing the possibility of significant changes in weather patterns across parts of Africa. For farming communities, that can make an already uncertain growing season harder to predict. 

Across Ripple Effect’s programmes, teams are working with communities to understand the risks and take practical steps before the impacts are felt. 

The World Meteological Organization (WMO) defines El Niño as the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and can influence rainfall and temperature patterns around the world, although its effects vary from one region to another. 

The strongest El Niño events are sometimes informally referred to as “Super El Niño”.  

The current El Niño is already established and is expected to strengthen towards the end of 2026. The WMO expects it to reach very strong intensity and has indicated a near 100% likelihood that it will continue through February 2027. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to develop, which can further influence rainfall patterns in East Africa.100% likelihood that it will continue through February 2027. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to develop, which can further influence rainfall patterns in East Africa. 

For communities in the Greater Horn of Africa, the latest regional forecast from IGAD Climate Predictions and Application Center (ICPAC) points to a wetter-than-normal October to December 2026 season. In parts of the region, this period provides a significant share of the year's rainfall, so changes during these months can have a major effect on farming and food security. 

More rain is not necessarily bad news. Good rainfall can replenish water sources and improve pasture. The concern is what happens when rainfall is excessive or arrives at the wrong time. Fields can become waterlogged, crops may be damaged and roads or other infrastructure can be affected. In areas prone to landslides, heavy rainfall can also erode or damage farmland, reducing its productivity over time, while severe landslides can put lives and homes at risk. Flooding can also disrupt access to markets and essential services. 

El Niño affects different parts of Africa in different ways, which is why local forecasts and early warning information are so important.  But forecasts cannot always capture what will happen in every community, particularly across large and geographically diverse areas. For farming families, this means it is important to use the best information available while still taking sensible steps to prepare for a range of possible conditions. 

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) notes that impacts can vary considerably even within the same region.

Previous strong El Niño events show why preparing early matters. 

The 2015-16 El Niño was one of the strongest events recorded, comparable in intensity with the major events of 1982-83 and 1997-98. Its effects were felt across many parts of the world, including Africa, where communities faced serious pressure on food and water supplies.

But previous events also offer an important lesson: early action can reduce the damage caused by extreme weather. 

FAO's recent analysis of El Niño-related agricultural risks highlights the value of acting before a crisis.  

Ripple Effect works with farming communities to build resilience well before climate shocks occur. Practices such as protecting and improving farmland, managing water and diversifying household income can help families reduce their vulnerability when extreme weather affects their livelihoods. 

As El Niño develops, we also have a responsibility to keep the communities we work with informed about the latest forecasts and help them prepare for the risks they may face. Across Ripple Effect programmes, teams are using available weather information alongside their existing resilience work to help communities consider what they can do now to reduce potential losses. 

Using early warnings to prepare 

Early warning is most useful when it leads to action. 

Ripple Effect teams are working with communities to share weather information, identify areas that may be particularly vulnerable and discuss what people can do if conditions become difficult. This includes working with local disaster risk reduction structures and making sure  communities know where to find reliable information and who to contact in an emergency. 

• In Uganda, the team is sharing the national weather advisory with staff and partners and using community meetings to discuss preparedness plans. 
• In Rwanda, teams are mapping areas where flooding or other hazards have previously affected communities and working with local authorities and group leaders to identify households in higher-risk locations. 

Protecting farms and food 

When heavy rain comes, preparation can make a difference to what a family is able to save. 

Depending on local conditions, Ripple Effect teams are encouraging farmers to think about crop choices, food storage and how to protect their farms from excessive rainfall.  

• In Ethiopia, preparedness plans include promoting early-maturing and waterlogging-tolerant crops, protecting water sources and strengthening measures to manage flooding in vulnerable communities. 
• In Zambia, teams are working through Savings and Internal Lending Communities (SILC) groups and lead farmers to share messages around food storage and crop diversification. Farmers are being encouraged to reduce their reliance on a single crop and consider options such as sorghum, millet, cassava and sweet potatoes alongside other farming activities. 

These approaches are not about replacing farmers' existing practices. They are about giving households more options when weather conditions do not go as expected. 

Building resilience beyond the farm 

A difficult season can affect a household long after a crop has been damaged. 

Savings groups can provide families with a financial buffer when they face unexpected costs or a poor harvest.  

In some programmes, teams are also helping communities think about alternative sources of income. This can be particularly important when a household depends heavily on farming and a poor season affects its main source of income. 

Livestock can also be an important household asset. Where flooding is a risk, communities can plan ahead for where animals could be moved to safer areas and consider how feed, water and animal health needs will be managed. 

Preparing with communities and local partners 

Preparedness works best when it is built around the realities of the people who will experience the impacts. 

That is why Ripple Effect's approach varies between countries and communities.  

• In Kenya, for example, teams are planning to support the development of information leaflets alongside relevant government bodies and incorporate community preparedness into existing project activities.  
• In Ethiopia, preparedness planning includes identifying flood and landslide-prone areas and strengthening community-based response arrangements. 

 Working with local authorities is also important. Government meteorological and disaster management services are often the most important sources of official warnings and have a central role in coordinating responses when emergencies occur. 

For Ripple Effect, preparedness therefore means more than having a plan on paper. It means working alongside communities and local partners so that people have the information, connections and resources they need to act when conditions change.

Farming families in rural Africa are on the frontline of a changing climate. As weather patterns become more unpredictable and climate shocks put pressure on crops, livestock and household incomes, building resilience is increasingly important. 

Ripple Effect works with farming communities to strengthen their livelihoods and adapt to a changing climate, helping families prepare for the challenges they face today while building a more secure future.